A rematch of the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals between two defensive juggernauts.
Part one of the fun. These NBA playoffs have been mystifying, exciting, and filled with edge-of-your-seat moments that make you fall in love with basketball all over again.
The Eastern Conference Finals pitting the one-seed Miami Heat vs. the second-seeded Boston Celtics feels right. Both of these teams deserve to be here, both have that “this team finds a way to win” feel to their season, and yet both teams took different routes to this round.
Miami hasn’t been healthy all year, still isn’t fully healthy, and none of that mattered. Guard Jimmy Butler, who many thought that he might be an aging superstar to begin this season, looks incredible on both sides of the floor. Center Bam Adebayo … words and stats don’t describe his impact, especially on the defensive end of the floor. After struggling to shoot the ball in games 3-4 against the Philadelphia 76ers, both losses, Miami re-captured their groove in their two wins to close out the series.
Boston is coming off a game 7 win over the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, closing out an all-time great second-round matchup. Forward Jayson Tatum, still somehow only 24, is an absolute superstar, besting Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo in consecutive rounds, respectively. 35-year-old Al Horford has found the fountain of youth, while players like guard Marcus Smart and forward Jaylen Brown continue to be aggressive and contribute to winning basketball.
There’s a lot to unpack in this series, but defense is both of these teams’ calling cards. I expect these games to look like modern 90’s basketball. Tons of physicality, moments where neither team can score, and lots of trash talk, all while three-point shots are being launched at a high rate. 1992 but in 2022!
Keys to Winning
Boston
I expect Boston to come out a little groggy in game one, and that’s okay considering the heavyweight matchup they just encountered in the prior series.
My key for Boston to win this series is the consistent play from Jaylen Brown, as well as their three-point shooting. Miami’s half-court defense is deafening, it feels like there are seven players on the floor at times. Boston needs to move the ball fast and take and make their open threes when the opportunities arrive because there won’t be many.
Center Robert Williams is off the injury report for game one after dealing with a bone bruise in the last round, and they need his athleticism to keep up with Adebayo. Horford, who put up 22 and 30 points in games 3 and 4, combined to score 16 points in the last three games of the series. He’ll be needed to produce on both sides of the court for them to win.
Jayson Tatum deserves every bit of praise that he has gotten in these playoffs so far, and I can’t wait to see how he handles this fast Miami defense, as well as potentially guarding Jimmy Butler. For me, there’s no pressure on Tatum. Just go us how great you are.
Miami
Starting guard Kyle Lowry is out for game one, and at some point, they are going to need his experience and toughness in this series. What’s fascinating is that even without Lowry, their offensive flow never changes. Guard Gabe Vincent comes into the starting lineup and can initiate the offense, be a spot-up shooter, and interchange his role in the offense with Butler.
Adebayo is going to have his hands full in the paint, but if he wins those matchups between Williams and Horford, he can open up the paint to cutters and three-point shooting, where he is one of the best big-man passers in the entire league. His front-court mate, forward PJ Tucker, should be able to help him out on both ends of the floor, but he’ll need to. Boston’s defense will be more than willing to give PJ open corner threes, and he must make them pay.
I’m curious to see how long their shooters can stay on the court. Forward Max Strus, along with guards Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, will all be targeted defensively. Whether it’s forcing missed shots or staying out of foul trouble, all three players are going to be needed to take and make big shots, with Herro being the most important.
It’s too tiring to doubt Jimmy Butler at this point, as I fully expect him to be great this series and go blow-for-blow with Tatum.
Prediction
This series will be war, in all of the best ways possible. Boston may be a little more talented overall, but Miami is slightly deeper and I’m too afraid of Miami’s half-court defense. Game seven being in Miami also gives them a slight edge.
Heat in 7.
Enjoy the series!
JB Sports Talk 