Key matchups, X-factors, and predictions for all four games to start the 2022 NBA Playoffs.
After 1,230 games of a complicated, injury and covid-protocols filled NBA regular season, we’re here! The playoffs Play-in has finally arrived and nobody has to pain themselves anymore into thinking the Lakers might sneak up on any top team in the West.
We’re in the third year of the NBA play-in tournament, and it’s time to embrace it. It’s here to stay and at the very least, it gives us a nice preview of what to expect in the next two and a half months.
- 7. Brooklyn Nets (44-38) vs. 8. Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
Season Series: Nets 3-1
X-Factor: Kevin Durant
Key Matchup: Darius Garland vs. Kyrie Irving
Two teams entered this play-in matchup under wildly different circumstances. The Nets started this season off as the Vegas favorite to win the NBA Championship, with their trio of forwarding Kevin Durant, guard Kyrie Irving and fellow guard James Harden. Kevin Durant getting injured, Kyrie only playing 29 games, and Harden is now in Philadelphia, they find themselves in the seven seed, staring down a potential first-round rematch of last years’ playoffs with the Boston Celtics.
Cleveland on the other hand was only projected 26.5 wins in the preseason, knocking that number out of the park and into potentially their first playoff appearance since 2018 and their first appearance without LeBron James on the roster since 1998. Guard Darius Garland had a breakout season, and rookie forward/center Evan Mobley looks like a superstar in the making.
It’s easy to say Kevin Durant is the X-factor because he’s the best player on the floor a top three player in the world, but this should be a statement game. Cleveland struggled towards the end of the regular season (9-15 since the All-Star break) and is still missing their starting center, Jarrett Allen. The Nets may have struggled as a whole this season, but they are 36-19 with Kevin Durant in the starting lineup.
I like the Kyrie Irving vs. Darius Garland matchup, but it’s especially important for Cleveland. For them to have any chance, Garland must be special with close to a 30 point-10 assist stat line. I’ll be interested to see if Brooklyn simply traps Garland off pick and rolls and forces the others to beat them.
Prediction: Brooklyn has been notorious for playing down to their competition this season, so if they don’t turn it up now, then when? Nets win by double-digits.
- 9. Atlanta Hawks (43-39) vs. 10. Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
Season series: Tied 2-2
X-Factor: Miles Bridges
Key Matchup: Trae Young vs. LaMelo Ball
Two fun, inconsistent, non-defensive teams meet in the 9 vs. 10 matchup in the East. This is why the play-in was created in the first place, for teams like these to get a shot and potentially make noise.
Atlanta was extremely disappointing this regular season. This was a team who made the Eastern Conference Finals just last season and felt primed to take another leap forward, yet took a step back. Guard Trae Young led the league in total points and assists (the first player since 1972-73 to achieve that) and carried them afloat in the last month of the season to get them in this position.
Charlotte is a bit trickier. They play fast, they are one of the funnest teams to watch night-to-night on league pass and yet left a little to be desired. Forward Gordon Hayward has already been ruled out of the play-in with left foot discomfort, giving more opportunities to guards LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier to do the heavy lifting on offense. Ball, the third overall pick in the 2020 draft, was awesome this season, and any doubts about his ability to be elite in this league have been squashed.
Hornets Forward Miles Bridges is my X-Factor in this game due to Hawks forward John Collins still possibly being out, meaning they don’t have anyone to match up with Bridges defensively that can hang with him around the floor. It’s a big mismatch in a game that should be close.
I doubt they’ll guard each other, but for us to be able to watch Trae Young and LaMelo Ball go at it in a win-or-go-home scenario, we win as fans.
Prediction: Charlotte is a more talented team, more consistent than you think on the road (21-20) and sneak one out against Atlanta.
- 7. Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36) vs. 8. Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
Season Series: Clippers 3-1
X-Factor: Patrick Beverley
Key Matchup: Tyronne Lue vs. Chris Finch
Minnesota finally feels like they are on the right path going forward. Karl-Anthony Towns is a superstar, Anthony Edwards is a rising star in this league, and the additions of Head Coach Chris Finch and Patrick Beverley provided a defensive identity to a team that has lacked that for years, where they are tied for third in the entire league in both steals (8.8) and blocks (5.6).
The Clippers missed Kawhi Leonard for the entire season due to a torn ACL, Paul George for 51 games for a torn ligament in his elbow, and yet find themselves in this situation with a chance to annoy a top team in the West in the first round. Reggie Jackson, Ivica Zubac, and Marcus Morris all had really good seasons but everyone on the roster has stepped up at some point and made significant contributions.
Patrick Beverley was traded by the Clippers last summer and gets a chance to beat them in the play-in. His counting stats never pop off the screen, but a couple of offensive rebounds and steals to go along with his overall chippy-ness might swing a close game in the T-Wolves favor.
Two top head coaches in this league, Chris Finch vs. Tyronne Lue is a chess match NBA die-hards will keep a close eye on, with both considered excellent in-game adjustors.
Prediction: Man, this is tough. Timberwolves slightly.
- 9. New Orleans Pelicans (36-46) vs San Antonio Spurs (34-48)
Season Series: Spurs 3-1
X-Factor: Herbert Jones
Key Matchup: Dejounte Murray vs CJ McCollum
Both teams had a strong finish to this season with optimism toward the future. New Orleans traded for guard CJ McCollum at the trade deadline in February and with CJ, they finished 13-13 while he averaged 24.3 points per game. With the future of forward Zion Williamson in question (who didn’t play this season), New Orleans at least has building blocks of McCollum and forward Brandon Ingram.
San Antonio watched guard Dejounte Murray blossom into an all-around stud, averaging 21.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game. Trading guard Derrick White in February opened shot opportunities for fellow guards Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker, as well as forward Keldon Johnson. Those three players are under the age of 23 and Dejounte is just 25.
Forward Herbert Jones, a rookie for the Pelicans, has been sensational defensively for them all season long and has a big task in slowing down Dejounte Murray and the Spurs offense. I expect Jones to be on Murray early and often.
Both of these teams lean heavily on the play and shot-making of Murray and McCollum, and whoever has a better game will quite possibly determine the outcome of this game.
Prediction: I like this matchup for San Antonio and with New Orleans, more specifically Brandon Ingram, not being fully healthy, I got this scrappy Spurs team on the road.
Enjoy the play-in and a first-round preview will be up before Game 1’s on Saturday!
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